ATTC
ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD ADVISORY 6
NWS HCW/HURRICANE CENTER WIKI AL192010
1200 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010
...RICHARD STRENGTHENS...HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS AND BELIZE...
SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...WITHIN 25 MILES OF 15.9N 83.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...755 KM NW OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
GUSTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR:
- DANGRIGA BELIZE TO CHETUMAL MEXICO
- LIMON HONDURAS TO LA CEIBA HONDURAS
- ISLA UTILA, ROATAN, AND GUANAJA
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR:
- CHETUMAL MEXICO TO PUNTA GRUESA MEXICO
- DANGRIGA BELIZE TO PLACENCIA BELIZE
- LA CEIBA HONDURAS TO TELA HONDURAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR:
- LA CEIBA HONDURAS TO DANGRIGA BELIZE
- CHETUMAL MEXICO TO PUNTA ALLEN MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR:
- CIUDAD DE CARMEN TO CAMPECHE MEXICO
DISCUSSION AND PROGNOSIS
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT RICHARD HAS STRENGTHENED...AND IT HAS STRENGTHENED RAPIDLY. FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CENTER WAS NOT ACCURATELY FOUND BY THE AIRCRAFT AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE, RICHARD IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE IN A VERY CONDUCTIVE ENVIRONMENT. WIND SHEAR ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE RELAXED OVER THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING IT TO INTENSIFY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL RICHARD EXITS THE GULF OF MEXICO, WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS TOO HOSTILE FOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE MOST OTHER INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS, AND IS ABOVE THE RSMC MIAMI'S INTENSITY FORECAST.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS MAINLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RSMC MIAMI'S FORECAST TRACK. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE PROBABLE LANDFALL LOCATION WILL BE BELIZE. AFTER THAT, THERE ARE SOME MODELS DISSIPATE IT IN THE YUCATAN AND SOME TAKE IT TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FORECAST AGREES WITH THE LATTER, AND SHOWS IT EMERGING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 4 DAYS.
INITIAL 55 KT
12HR VT 65 KT
24HR VT 70 KT
36HR VT 75 KT
48HR VT 45 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 30 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 25 KT...DISSIPATING