ATTC
ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD ADVISORY 5
NWS #WIKI-HURRICANES/HURRICANE CENTER WIKI ATTC19-5
800 PM CDT FRI 22 OCT 2010
Discussion
Aircraft recon and Satellite imagery reveal that Tropical Storm Richard is having a tough time with Dry Air and Wind Shear. Maximum sustained winds reported from recon were 34 knots, which translates to a lower-end Tropical Storm, if rounded. Even though the enviroment is unfavorable for much development and strengthening right now, conditions are dramatically improving as time progresses, and it is likely a period of Rapid Intensification will occur with Richard once he reaches the favorable conditions within the next 24-36 hours. Our intensity forecast calls for a high-end Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, however a Category 2 is definitely possible with this storm, especially with the way storms have been undergoing the Rapid Intensification period this season. Residents in Belize City especially need to get prepared for a likely hurricane tomorrow night into Sunday, if they have not already. For all the watches and warnings issued by us, along with our complete Intensity forecast, see below.
Briefing
Center location: 82.3W 15.8N
Center confidence: ± 20 nm
Wind: 40 kts (45 mph)
Pressure: 1007 mb
Shear: Moderate (10-20 knots)
Structure: Spiral Banding, Central Dense Overcast
Watches and Warnings
Hurricane Warnings: Link
Hurricane Watches: Link
Tropical Storm Warnings: Link
Tropical Storm Watches: Link
Intensity Forecast
| Initial | 12 hr. | 24 hr. | 36 hr. | 48 hr. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 mph (40 kt.) | 75 mph (65 knots) | 80 mph (70 knots) | 45 mph [(40 knots)(Overland)] | 35 mph [(30 knots)(Overland)] |