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ATTC
ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD ADVISORY 3
NWS #WIKI-HURRICANES/HURRICANE CENTER WIKI ATTC19-3
830 AM CDT FRI 22 OCT 2010

DiscussionEdit

Satellite Imagery, along with ASCAT passes, and the presence of air recon, all support an intensifying Tropical Storm Richard. After weakening some last night, the storm is beginning to organize, and that is exactly what it is going to do. Winds found by recon have been near 40 knots, which translates to 45 mph, a stronger Richard. This is what I am basing the initial intensity at, 45 mph. Minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. as the storm moves to the W/WNW at a very slow 1-2 mph. With favorable conditions, and a good deal of time over water, the intensity forecast at peak is set at 70 knots, which is 80 mph. However, if Richard encounters Honduras, it will likely be weaker, and if it moves more northerly that expected, it will likely be stronger. It is likely that Richard will become our 10th hurricane of the season.

BriefingEdit

Center location: 81W 16N
Center confidence: ± 40 nm
Wind: 40 kts (45 mph)
Pressure: 1005 mb
Shear: Moderate (10-20 knots)
Structure: Spiral Banding, Central Dense Overcast


Watches and WarningsEdit

Hurricane warning:
Hurricane watch:
Tropical Storm warning:
Tropical Storm watch:

Intensity ForecastEdit

Initial - 40 kts 12HR - 50 kts - 24HR - 60 kts

48HR - 65 kts
60HR - 70 kts
72HR - 35 kts
84HR - 30 kts (Overland)
96HR - 30 kts (Overland)

TropicalAnalystwx13` 8:30 AM (CDT) October 22, 2010

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