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ATTC
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS HCW/HURRICANE CENTER WIKI AL182010
0800 AM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...TS PAULA LIKELY TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 0800 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...14.9N 83.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...175 KM WNW OF THE ISLAND OF CAYOS MISKITOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
GUSTS...40 MPH...60 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATHCES AND WARNINGSEdit

ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR CUBA ARE CANCELLED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW ISSUED FROM PUERTO CABEZAS, NICARAGUA ALL THE WAY TO PUERTO BARRIOS, GUATEMALA, INCLUDING THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUERTO BARRIOS, GUATEMALA TO BELIZE CITY, BELIZE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO ISSUED FOR CHETUMAL, MEXICO TO PUNTA ALLEN, MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM PUERTO CABEZAS TO BLUEFIELDS, NICARAGUA.

PROGNOSISEdit

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION #18 IS IMPROVING. AN ASCAT PASS FROM EARLIER SHOWS THAT THERE ARE ISOLATED AREAS OF 40 MPH WIND SPEEDS, BUT THERE AREN'T ENOUGH BARBS TO UPGRADE THIS SYSTEM, YET. IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL UPGRADE TO TROPICAL STORM PAULA EITHER AT THE 11PM ADVISORY, OR AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY, UNLESS THE SYSTEM BECOMES LESS ORGANIZED. OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR TD 18 TO BECOME PAULA SOMETIME WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS, AND HOLD STRENGTH AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM (40 MPH) BEFORE A VERY, VERY STEADY STRENGTHENING PERIOD TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE ARE MANY SOLUTIONS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH OUR DEPRESSION. FOR ONE, IT COULD GET DISRUPTED BY DRY AIR AND WIND SHEAR AND DIE OUT. THE OTHER IS THAT IT CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HOT TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL VALUES, AND TRY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE. WHATEVER THE CASE, ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE OUR SIXTEENTH TROPICAL STORM TODAY.


FORECAST WINDSEdit

INITIAL 30 KTS OVERLAND (35 MPH)
12HR 35 KTS (40 MPH)
24HR 35 KTS (40 MPH)
36HR 40 KTS (45 MPH)
48HR 40 KTS (45 MPH)
72HR 40 KTS (45 MPH)
96HR 45 KTS (50 MPH)
120HR 40 KTS (45 MPH)

FORECASTER TROPICALANALYSTWX13

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