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ATTC
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Advisory
Hurricane Paula Advisory Number 10...Corrected
NWS #Wiki-hurricanes/Wikipedia Hurricane Center (WHC) ATTC18-10
1200 UTC Wednesday, October 13, 2010

DetailsEdit

Satellite imagery, microwave imagery, and observations from the Hurricane Hunters all agree that there is a healthy eyewall, and eye, forming rather rapidly. Cold cloud tops appear to be forming around the eyewall, with the coolest temperatures about 80°c. Recon data also reveals that winds in the 85-90 knots range are being held within Paula. This, combined with all of there other things listed, is enough for me to upgrade Paula to a strong category 2 hurricane - 105 mph. Residents living in western Cuba, and especially the northern peninsula of the Yucatan, north of Belize, need to finish preparing, as conditions will be deteriorating throughout the evening and overnight. A little more strengthening is expected through tonight before a steady weakening trend through the end of the period. Paula should be able to briefly attain major hurricane status, the sixth of the season. The long-term forecast is difficult to predict, but residents in southern Florida, including the keys, and the Bahamas, need to monitor the progress of Paula very closely.

BriefingEdit

Center location: 19.7N 86.3W
Center confidence: ± 10 nm
Minimum central pressure: 980 MB, 28.94 Inches Maximum sustained winds: 105 MPH, 170 KM/H
Present movement: North or 350 degrees at 9 MPH, 15 KM/H Convection: Coldest cloud tops about -80°C Shear: Southerly 10-20 kts Structure: Eyewall, weak eye, CDO

Watches and WarningsEdit

Hurricane warning: Belize City to Cancun
Hurricane watch: Puerto Barrios to Cancun
Tropical Storm warning: Toledo, Belize to Quintana Roo-Yucutan border
Tropical Storm watch: Toledo, Belize to Quintana Roo-Yucutan border

Intensity ForecastEdit

Initial - 90 Knots, 980 MB
12HR - 95 Knots, 976 MB
24HR - 90 Knots, 981 MB
36HR - 85 Knots, 986 MB
48HR - 70 Knots, 989 MB
60HR - 65 Knots, 991 MB
72HR - 70 Knots, 987 MB
84HR - 60 Knots, 992 MB
96HR - 40 Knots, 1001 MB

$$
Forecaster TropicalAnalystwx13

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