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INVEST ADVISORY
INVEST 99L ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS HCW/HURRICANE CENTER WIKI AL992010
800 PM EST TUE OCT 19 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION #19 FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN, STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...17.9N 82.2W
ABOUT N/A MILES TO THE N/A OF N/A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...60 KM/HR
GUSTS...45 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST 11 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.71 IN.

WATCHES AND WARNINGSEdit

PROGNOSISEdit

THE NINETEENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ACTIVE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON HAS FORMED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LOW LEVEL CENTER BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED BY THE MINUTE, AND RECON DATA FROM EARLIER REVEALED A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THEY ALSO FOUND REMARKABLY HIGH WINDS FROM WHAT WE THOUGHT WAS ONLY A 30 MPH SYSTEM. IN SOME CASES, WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE 45-50 MPH RANGE, WHICH IS TROPICAL STORM FORCE. HOWEVER, SINCE TD #19 DOES NOT HAVE A VERY WELL-DEFINED CENTER, I HAVE OPTED TO DECLARE THIS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION INSTEAD OF A TROPICAL STORM. BUT, TROPICAL STORM RICHARD IS LIKELY TO FORM SOMETIME BY TOMORROW MORNING, AND FOR THAT REASON, MORE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES, AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS, HAVE BEEN ISSUED. WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIROMENT IN FRONT OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION #19 COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME A HURRICANE, AS DEPICTED BY SEVERAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS SET BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY, BUT THIS SHOULD BE BROUGHT TO OUR ATTENTION IN THE COMING DAYS. RESIDENTS ACROSS THE USA STATE OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY, WITH AN APPROACHING TROF ON THE WAY, WHICH HELPS TURN SYSTEMS USUALLY TO THAT DIRECTION. CLIMATOLOGY DEFINITELY FAVORS THIS MOVEMENT WHEN A STORM FORMS IN THE CARIBBEAN, SO TD #19 WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY.

FORECAST WINDSEdit

Initial Intensity 12 hr Intensity 24 hr Intensity 36 hr Intensity 48 hr Intensity 60 hr Intensity
30 mph 35 mph 35 mph 40 mph 40 mph 45 mph

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