ATLANTIC AOI DISCUSSION
NWS #WIKI-HURRICANES/WIKIPEDIA HURRICANE CENTER AOI2010101623
0000 UTC SAT OCT 16 2010
...INVEST 90L FORMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...91L JOINS HER IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
Center Location: 81W 11N
Center confidence: 100 nm.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 25 mph
Pressure: 1008 mb.
Satellite Imagery shows that an area of disturbed weather is becoming better organized, especially convective wise. It appears a very weak low pressure area may be forming in the vicinity of 81W 11N, and that is what I have based by center location off of. However, since there is no actual well-defined area of low pressure, one could form anywhere. For that reason, I have put a 100 nm. center confidence in, and that may need to be raised. That fact alone shows you that this system is still very disorganized, although better defined from this morning. The official intensity is set at 25 mph, with a pressure of 1008 millibars, but slow development is expected through the remainder of the weekend and into next week. Invest 99L has a good shot at becoming Tropical Depression #19, and eventually Tropical Storm Richard. For the long-term forecast, see "Long Range Forecast" on the page "Atlantic".
~ TropicalAnalystwx13 (7:30 EST/6:30 CDT/5:30 PDT/23:30 UTC)